B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 13-Sep 15 2017
Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15
S1 or greater 95% 80% 60%
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at S2 (Moderate) levels early on day one (13 Sep), then decrease to S1
(Minor) later in the day as the radiation storm diminishes. The greater
than 100 MeV flux levels are expected to remain above the 1 pfu
threshold for the first part of day one (13 Sep) with a chance of
exceeding that threshold again on day two (14 Sep).
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 13-Sep 15 2017
Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
# Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory
# GIRO Tabulated Ionospheric Characteristics, Version 1.0 Revision B
# Generated by DIDBGetValues on 2017-09-13T02:44:48.898Z
#
# Location: GEO 64.66N 212.93E, URSI-Code EI764 EIELSON
# Instrument: Ionosonde, Model: DPS-4D
#
# Query for measurement intervals of time:
# 2017-09-13T02:00:00.000Z - 2017-09-13T02:30:00.000Z
#
# Data Selection:
# CS is Autoscaling Confidence Score (from 0 to 100, 999 if manual scaling, -1 if unknown)
# foF2 [MHz] - F2 layer critical frequency
#
#Time CS foF2 QD
2017-09-13T02:30:00.000Z 70 4.625 //
Latest 24 Hour Ionogram Movies for Eielson AFB
Observations
Propagation Failure
Ionograms reveal no return signal reflections and recorded transmission were only of local ground wave stations
Conclusion
Hypothesized Conclusion
Failure of propagation due to Polar Cap Absorption manifesting as major D-Layer signal attenuation for central Alaska and other areas north of 60 degrees north latitude as shown in the image below.
