B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2017
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
S1 or greater 95% 80% 60%
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at S1 (Minor) levels on day one (14 Sep), then decrease below the 10 pfu
warning threshold as the radiation storm diminishes.
# Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory
# GIRO Tabulated Ionospheric Characteristics, Version 1.0 Revision B
# Generated by DIDBGetValues on 2017-09-14T02:52:58.914Z
#
# Location: GEO 64.66N 212.93E, URSI-Code EI764 EIELSON
# Instrument: Ionosonde, Model: DPS-4D
#
# Query for measurement intervals of time:
# 2017-09-14T02:00:00.000Z - 2017-09-14T02:30:00.000Z
#
# Data Selection:
# CS is Autoscaling Confidence Score (from 0 to 100, 999 if manual scaling, -1 if unknown)
# foF2 [MHz] - F2 layer critical frequency
#
#Time CS foF2 QD
2017-09-14T02:00:00.000Z 65 3.626 //
2017-09-14T02:15:00.000Z 70 3.850 //
2017-09-14T02:30:00.000Z 70 3.725 //
Latest 24 Hour Ionogram Movies for Eielson AFB
Observations
Propagation Moderate
Ionograms reveal small return signal reflections as revealed by recorded transmission from stations 300 miles south of Alaska Range.
Hypothesized Conclusion
Increase in propagation over previous days may be due to further northward displacement of area affected by Polar Cap Absorption thus decreasing D-Layer signal attenuation.
